MP 
Merlin Polzin
MPS
Near baseline
- Stale data
- C uses 50
Last 5
38matches · eligible league results with this manager
Pressure history
Reconstructed · 38 matches
Breakdown
MPS ≈ 60% R + 30% S + 10% C
Details
As of 2 Oct 2026 · Experimental index, not a dismissal probability.
About this history
One calculated point after each eligible match in this manager’s current spell. The latest match value can differ from the current snapshot after input or model revisions.
Change since the previous generated snapshot: 0 points. Reason: quality update. The chart is recalculated from the available match results and is not an archive of what was published on each match date.
All recorded component contributions are unchanged.
All component changes total 0.00 points before clamping and rounding.
Clamping adjustment 0.00 and integer-rounding adjustment 0.00 reconcile this to 0 MPS points.
How the score change adds up
Compared with 30 Sept 2026, 00:24 UTC · revision 1 · mps-v2.1-experimental. Recorded weighted contributions are compared directly. Retired components remain visible here so changes across model versions add up.
| Contribution | Change in MPS points |
|---|---|
| R · Recent results | 0.00 |
| E · Position vs expectation · Retired | 0.00 |
| S · Tenure performance | 0.00 |
| M · Losing & winless runs · Retired | 0.00 |
| C · Club Dismissal Index | 0.00 |
| T · Tenure prior · Retired | 0.00 |
| K · Latest heavy defeat · Retired | 0.00 |
| Raw change | 0.00 |
| Clamping adjustment | 0.00 |
| Integer-rounding adjustment | 0.00 |
| Displayed MPS change | 0 |
Raw change plus the clamping and integer-rounding adjustments equals the displayed change. Component figures shown here are rounded to two decimals; the reconciliation uses their full precision.
Why this score?
Higher values add more pressure. Small samples move toward 50.
| Component | Weight | MPS points |
|---|---|---|
| R · Recent form | 60% | 33.41 |
| S · Tenure performance | 30% | 17.87 |
| C · Club history · Substituted baseline | 10% | 5.00 |
Weighted components = 56.28 before clamping and rounding. Recent and tenure results overlap.
How MPS works ↗Recent points per match
- Actual
- 1.23
- Expected
- 1.09
Weighted · 8 eligible matches.
Performance context, not the MPS formula.
- Recent 8 matches: weighted result pressure 52.93; R contributes 33.4 points.
- Continuous tenure: 38 available matches across 2 seasons; older results halve in weight every 38 eligible matches. S contributes 17.9 points.
- Win/draw/loss supplies 80% of each match pressure; pre-match expected points supplies 20%. Both weighted means use the fixed tanh curve, then the shared 38/(38+1) sample adjustment.
- C uses a fixed baseline of 50. The club did not play in this league during the initial 2024/25 research window. Other seasons have not been verified; C uses the baseline value of 50.
- Coverage describes available league records; absent seasons are not treated as zero results. Current-season counts reflect known completed results.
- Context only: 0 consecutive losses; 0 without a win. No extra points are added.
| Points per match | Actual | Expected |
|---|---|---|
| Recent · 8 matches Weighted · R | 1.23 | 1.09 |
| Tenure · 38 matches Weighted · S | 1.08 | 1.13 |
Wins, draws and losses supply 80% of each match score; pre-match expected points supply 20%. These points-per-match figures give context, rather than the score formula. R and S share the same pre-match Elo. Recent matches carry more weight; tenure weight halves every 38 eligible matches.
Result period: 24 Aug 2025–19 Sept 2026. Results shown for the current manager. Small-sample factor: 0.974.
| Season | Eligible matches |
|---|---|
| 2025/26 | 34 |
| 2026/27 | 4 |
Prior-season coverage: complete. Available from 24 Aug 2025. Missing periods are not filled with losses or zero results.
Coverage describes available league records; absent seasons are not treated as zero results. Current-season counts reflect known completed results.
These explanations follow the model inputs. They do not describe private boardroom decisions.
Recent league matches
Oldest to newest · current manager only
| Date / opponent | Result | Points | Expected points |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Apr · Home TSG Hoffenheim | L1–2 | 0 | 1.22 |
| 2 May · Away Eintracht Frankfurt | W2–1 | 3 | 0.83 |
| 10 May · Home SC Freiburg | W3–2 | 3 | 1.28 |
| 16 May · Away Bayer Leverkusen | D1–1 | 1 | 0.62 |
| 29 Aug · Away Borussia Dortmund | L0–2 | 0 | 0.68 |
| 6 Sept · Home Mainz 05 | L0–5 | 0 | 1.40 |
| 13 Sept · Away RB Leipzig | L0–5 | 0 | 0.77 |
| 19 Sept · Home 1. FC Köln | W2–1 | 3 | 1.60 |
R and S use the same pre-match Elo. Results carry 80% of each match score and expected points 20%. Cups and uncompleted games are excluded.
Club context
Bundesliga · 2026/27
Reconstructed position 16 · 3 points from 4 matches. Losing run: 0. Winless run: 0. Position and runs add no separate score points. A new manager is not assigned the previous manager’s results.
Club Dismissal Index: 50. History is unavailable; the neutral prior of 50 is substituted.
Only confirmed in-season club dismissals count. Resignations, mutual consent and unknown departures are not automatically classed as dismissals.
Know the limits
- C: The club did not play in this league during the initial 2024/25 research window. Other seasons have not been verified; C uses the baseline value of 50.
- League dismissal prior is provisional
- Some included results use Elo without prior warm up; outcome scoring remains active
- Snapshot as of 2 Oct 2026, 00:25 UTC
38 matches in the current spell · mps-v2.1-experimental - C uses 50: The club did not play in this league during the initial 2024/25 research window. Other seasons have not been verified; C uses the baseline value of 50.
- Manager checked: 2 Oct 2026, 00:25 UTC
- Club baseline fixed: 6 Sept 2026 · revision 1
The club did not play in this league during the initial 2024/25 research window. Other seasons have not been verified; C uses the baseline value of 50. - Eligible results: 38 of 38 known completed league matches in this spell (100.0%).
Excluded for incomplete result data: 0. This does not establish coverage of games absent from the source. - Club dismissal history: No verified observation period; the neutral prior is used.
- Freshness at generation: within configured threshold
- Last fetch: 2 Oct 2026, 00:19 UTC
Latest result: 20 Sept 2026, 00:20 UTC
Generated: 2 Oct 2026, 00:25 UTC - Elo warmup: 34 matches
- League prior: Provisional fallback
- Difference in matches played: 0
Coverage describes available inputs. It is not a confidence interval or a measure of predictive accuracy.
Sources
Official identity sources & image credits
- Official club emblem ↗
Credit: Bundesliga - Official manager portrait ↗
Credit: Bundesliga - www.bundesliga.com ↗
- www.bundesliga.com ↗
football-data.org Bundesliga current season
football-data.org · Checked 6 Sept 2026
View source ↗
football-data.org Bundesliga 2025 results
football-data.org · Checked 6 Sept 2026
View source ↗