Millstone Rovers
Felix Moreau
MPS
Near baseline
This caretaker manager is shown separately and is not included in the permanent-manager ranking.
Last 5
22matches · eligible league results with this manager
Pressure history
Reconstructed · 22 matches
Breakdown
MPS ≈ 60% R + 30% S + 10% C
Details
As of 5 Sept 2026 · Experimental index, not a dismissal probability.
About this history
One calculated point after each eligible match in this manager’s current spell. The latest match value can differ from the current snapshot after input or model revisions.
Change since the previous generated snapshot: 0 points. Reason: model update. The chart is recalculated from the available match results and is not an archive of what was published on each match date.
Model updated from mps-v2.0-experimental to mps-v2.1-experimental; calculation rules changed.
All recorded component contributions are unchanged.
All component changes total 0.00 points before clamping and rounding.
Clamping adjustment 0.00 and integer-rounding adjustment 0.00 reconcile this to 0 MPS points.
How the score change adds up
Compared with 5 Sept 2026, 00:00 UTC · revision 8 · mps-v2.0-experimental. Recorded weighted contributions are compared directly. Retired components remain visible here so changes across model versions add up.
| Contribution | Change in MPS points |
|---|---|
| R · Recent results | 0.00 |
| E · Position vs expectation · Retired | 0.00 |
| S · Tenure performance | 0.00 |
| M · Losing & winless runs · Retired | 0.00 |
| C · Club Dismissal Index | 0.00 |
| T · Tenure prior · Retired | 0.00 |
| K · Latest heavy defeat · Retired | 0.00 |
| Raw change | 0.00 |
| Clamping adjustment | 0.00 |
| Integer-rounding adjustment | 0.00 |
| Displayed MPS change | 0 |
Raw change plus the clamping and integer-rounding adjustments equals the displayed change. Component figures shown here are rounded to two decimals; the reconciliation uses their full precision.
Why this score?
Higher values add more pressure. Small samples move toward 50.
| Component | Weight | MPS points |
|---|---|---|
| R · Recent form | 60% | 21.57 |
| S · Tenure performance | 30% | 18.74 |
| C · Club history | 10% | 4.85 |
Weighted components = 45.16 before clamping and rounding. Recent and tenure results overlap.
How MPS works ↗Recent points per match
- Actual
- 1.53
- Expected
- 1.25
Weighted · 8 eligible matches.
Performance context, not the MPS formula.
- Recent 8 matches: weighted result pressure 42.43; R contributes 21.6 points.
- Continuous tenure: 22 available matches across 2 seasons; older results halve in weight every 38 eligible matches. S contributes 18.7 points.
- Win/draw/loss supplies 80% of each match pressure; pre-match expected points supplies 20%. Both weighted means use the fixed tanh curve, then the shared 22/(22+1) sample adjustment.
- C is fixed from 6.0 verified club-seasons, contributing 4.8 points. Baseline established 2026-05-01.
- Coverage describes available league records; absent seasons are not treated as zero results. Current-season counts reflect known completed results.
- Earlier tenure seasons are missing, partial or unverified: 2024/25, 2025/26.
- No verified coverage record is available for some tenure seasons.
- Context only: 0 consecutive losses; 2 without a win. No extra points are added.
| Points per match | Actual | Expected |
|---|---|---|
| Recent · 8 matches Weighted · R | 1.53 | 1.25 |
| Tenure · 22 matches Weighted · S | 1.12 | 1.30 |
Wins, draws and losses supply 80% of each match score; pre-match expected points supply 20%. These points-per-match figures give context, rather than the score formula. R and S share the same pre-match Elo. Recent matches carry more weight; tenure weight halves every 38 eligible matches.
Result period: 1 Mar 2026–31 Aug 2026. Results shown for the current manager. Small-sample factor: 0.957.
| Season | Eligible matches |
|---|---|
| 2025/26 · fictional schedule | 8 |
| 2026/27 · fictional schedule | 14 |
Prior-season coverage: partial. Available from 1 Mar 2026. Missing season start years: 2024, 2025. Missing periods are not filled with losses or zero results.
Coverage describes available league records; absent seasons are not treated as zero results. Current-season counts reflect known completed results.
Earlier tenure seasons are missing, partial or unverified: 2024/25, 2025/26.
No verified coverage record is available for some tenure seasons.
These explanations follow the model inputs. They do not describe private boardroom decisions.
Recent league matches
Oldest to newest · current manager only
| Date / opponent | Result | Points | Expected points |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Jul · Away Rivermoor Rovers | L0–1 | 0 | 0.99 |
| 20 Jul · Home Eastwick Rovers | L0–1 | 0 | 1.42 |
| 27 Jul · Away Harbour Vale Rovers | L1–3 | 0 | 0.99 |
| 3 Aug · Home Dalesmouth Rovers | W2–1 | 3 | 1.26 |
| 10 Aug · Away Springvale Rovers | W2–1 | 3 | 1.07 |
| 17 Aug · Home Meadow Park Rovers | W2–0 | 3 | 1.66 |
| 24 Aug · Home Oakhill Rovers | D1–1 | 1 | 1.42 |
| 31 Aug · Away Brookmere Rovers | D2–2 | 1 | 1.06 |
R and S use the same pre-match Elo. Results carry 80% of each match score and expected points 20%. Cups and uncompleted games are excluded.
Club context
Bundesliga · 2026/27 · fictional schedule
Reconstructed position 13 · 17 points from 14 matches. Losing run: 0. Winless run: 2. Position and runs add no separate score points. A new manager is not assigned the previous manager’s results.
Club Dismissal Index: 48. Verified observation exposure: 6.00 club-seasons.
Only confirmed in-season club dismissals count. Resignations, mutual consent and unknown departures are not automatically classed as dismissals.
Know the limits
- Fictional demonstration data
- Tenure history coverage: partial; only available verified results are included
- Some included results use Elo without prior warm up; outcome scoring remains active
- caretaker manager: separate from permanent ranking
- Snapshot as of 5 Sept 2026, 00:00 UTC
22 matches in the current spell · mps-v2.1-experimental - Manager checked: 5 Sept 2026, 00:00 UTC
- Club baseline fixed: 1 May 2026 · revision 1
Fixed from verified observation periods; unobserved gaps are excluded. - Eligible results: 22 of 22 known completed league matches in this spell (100.0%).
Excluded for incomplete result data: 0. This does not establish coverage of games absent from the source. - Club dismissal history: 1 May 2020–30 Apr 2026
6 verified records · 6.00 club-seasons of exposure. Gaps are not counted as observed seasons. - Freshness at generation: within configured threshold
- Last fetch: 5 Sept 2026, 00:00 UTC
Latest result: 31 Aug 2026, 17:24 UTC
Generated: 5 Sept 2026, 00:00 UTC - Elo warmup: 8 matches
- League prior: Estimated from verified coverage
- Difference in matches played: 0
Coverage describes available inputs. It is not a confidence interval or a measure of predictive accuracy.
Sources
Sack Races fictional test fixture
DemoProvider · Checked 5 Sept 2026
All clubs, managers and match results on this page are fictional fixtures. These fixtures remain separate from the live rankings.
All data sources & status ↗